從縱火到攻擊美軍基地 伊朗代理戰爭升級
Base Would Be a High Bar in ‘Gig-Economy’ Warfare
When the United States ignited a war against Iran in February, counterterrorism analysts braced for reprisal attacks outside the Middle East. What materialized was a string of about 20 small-scale arson and bombing attacks against Jewish and American targets in Europe and North America.
美國在2月點燃對伊朗的戰火後，反恐分析師嚴防中東以外的報復攻擊。結果出現的是一連串約20起小型縱火與爆炸攻擊，目標是歐洲與北美的猶太與美國設施。
Then, a week ago, outside a British air base that Iran had branded a “legitimate target,” police arrested and later released five men in a murky plot that counterterrorism experts said echoed the previous pattern.
一周前，在伊朗標榜為「合法目標」的英國空軍基地外，警方逮捕涉及一樁案情複雜的五名男子，隨後釋放，反恐專家稱其呼應了此前的模式。
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said there were “strong indications that Iran played a part,” and a British Iranian national was also arrested.
英國首相柏能表示，有「強烈跡象顯示伊朗參與其中」，另有一名英國伊朗籍國民也被逮捕。
Over the weekend, the U.S. rapidly withdrew all 12 B-1 Air Force bombers from the air base after new threats about an Iran-backed plot, two U.S. officials said Sunday, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
兩名美國官員周日匿名表示，鑒於伊朗支持陰謀的新威脅浮現，美國上周末迅速從該空軍基地撤離所有 12 架 B-1 空軍轟炸機。
Separately, British counterterrorism police charged two Iranian men Friday in a suspected terrorist plot targeting Jews in the Manchester area. The men assembled components for homemade explosives and conducted reconnaissance on potential targets, authorities said.
此外，英國反恐警方上周五指控兩名伊朗男子涉嫌在曼徹斯特地區針對猶太人的恐怖陰謀。當局表示，這些男子組裝了自製炸彈組件，並對潛在目標進行偵察。
While the previous attacks often occurred at night, with no loss of life and often superficial damage, an assault on an air base would represent a serious escalation, experts said.
雖然此前的攻擊常發生在夜間，無人喪生且損害往往輕微，但專家表示，對空軍基地的襲擊代表嚴重升級。
“That would be a jump in ambition and an evolution of the proxy campaign,” said Adrian Shtuni, a counterterrorism expert and security consultant based in Washington. Unlike the soft, symbolic targets in the previous attacks, he said, the British military base was used for U.S. strikes on Iran.
「那代表野心大幅升級，也意味著代理戰爭進入新階段，」華盛頓的反恐專家兼安全顧問什圖尼說。他說，英國軍事基地曾用於對伊朗發動美國打擊，與此前的軟性、象徵性目標不同。
This style of terrorist attack is sometimes referred to as the “gig economy hybrid model of warfare.” Iran adopted it after Russia used it in Europe, experts said. It involves “disposable agents” or “cutouts.” They do not know who is hiring them.
這種恐怖攻擊有時被稱為「零工經濟混合戰爭模式」。專家表示，伊朗在俄羅斯於歐洲使用後採用。這種模式會找來可隨時切割的臨時執行者(disposable agents)與用來設置斷點的中間人(cutouts)，並透過多層中間人傳遞指令，讓實際犯案者無從得知真正的幕後主使。
“Criminals, teenagers and cutouts are cheaper and replaceable, and a chain of intermediaries sits between them and any IRGC handler,” Shtuni said, referring to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. “So a failed arson does not produce an expelled diplomat or a casus belli.”
「罪犯、青少年與中間人更便宜且可替換，任何伊朗革命衛隊聯絡人與他們之間都有一連串斷點中間人，」什圖尼說：「因此，一次失敗的縱火不會導致外交官被驅逐或成為戰爭藉口。」
The earlier attacks all followed a similar model, authorities and analysts said. They were carried out by local criminals or disenfranchised young men hired through anonymous online transactions and paid in cryptocurrency, with a front organization for the Guard ultimately claiming responsibility.
當局與分析師表示，此前攻擊遵循類似模式，由當地罪犯或社會邊緣年輕男子執行，匿名線上交易僱用，以加密貨幣支付，最終由革命衛隊的掩護組織宣稱負責。
The attacks stopped in May, after an Iraqi man suspected of being the organizer was arrested in Turkey and extradited to the United States to face terrorism charges.
一名涉嫌籌畫的伊拉克男子在土耳其被捕並被引渡到美國面臨恐攻指控後，此類攻擊在5月停止。
文／Neil MacFarquhar，譯／國際中心
教育新血流失：是什麼逼走年輕教師？